EU tobacco control strategies miss the mark – a cautionary tale for policymakers
A new report by Smokefree Sweden 2024 (Missing the Target) has highlighted how tobacco control strategies across Europe are contributing to the region’s continued failure to meet smokefree goals. The Special Eurobarometer 539 shows that 24% of Europe’s adults continue to smoke with a modest 1 percentage point decrease in smoking rates reported since 2020.
Missing the Target’s authors calculate that at this rate the EU will not reach its smokefree goals until 2100, which is in stark contrast with Sweden, a country that has embraced alternative nicotine products such as snus, nicotine pouches, vapes and heated tobacco and is predicted to meet its smokefree target in 2025.
Sweden’s exceptionally successful tobacco harm reduction strategy (THR) has focused on lowering taxes on safer alternatives while increasing taxes on cigarettes. This is in contrast with countries that have imposed strict regulations or bans on alternative nicotine products and are now seeing an abrupt decline in their smokefree progress.
Perhaps the most cautionary tale in over-regulation comes from Estonia which has seen a dramatic 40% surge in smoking rates as the unintended consequences of bureaucratic overreach has driven smokers back to tobacco.
Sweden’s successful smokefree results are in stark contrast to other EU countries
Source: Missing the Target. Smokefree Sweden
With New Zealand’s vaping legislation undergoing significant review to curb youth vaping, what is happening across Europe, and in Australia, should cause our lawmakers to take pause. Like Sweden, New Zealand is on the brink of achieving its smokefree goals.
There is no question vaping has contributed to the rapid reduction New Zealand’s daily smoking rates from 16.4% in 2011/12 to an all-time low of 6.8% in 2022/23 but concerningly latest New Zealand Health Survey data shows a plateau to 6.9% in 2023/24. Prior to this, increased excise taxes and public health campaigns for tobacco had failed to deliver a significant impact and tobacco sales remained high until the entry of vaping into national retailers in 2018. Once vaping products were as accessible as tobacco, New Zealand saw the sale of tobacco and smoking rates begin to decline materially.
We do need to turn the tide on youth vaping and there is wide reaching support for:
Removing disposables which are known to be attractive to young people is universally supported, but care must be taken to get the wider legislative settings correct if we are to support adult smokers and continue to achieve our smokefree aspirations.
Creating a workable regulatory framework that enables industry compliance and regulator enforcement is central to the success of any legislation.
But care must be taken to avoid unnecessary regulation, that while well intended, is unenforceable and opens the door to foreign operators to deliver low quality products to New Zealand consumers through unregulated online channels.
Lawmakers need to:
Create a robust legislative framework that supports local retailers to educate adult consumers on the products needed to support their quit journey,
While ensuring access through a physical retail network and legitimate age-verified online channels will support New Zealand’s long-term smokefree goals.
Avoid the trap regulator in other countries have fallen into where their attempts to eliminate all forms of nicotine use has resulted in an unintentional push back towards traditional cigarettes. Across the EU many regulators have inadvertently delivered policies that benefit tobacco and have not met public health objectives.
As we watch the EU’s 2040 smokefree hopes heading off into the sunset this report is a timely reminder that traditional tobacco control policy is not the answer. Balanced, harm-reduction strategies that encourage smokers to transition to less harm alternatives are central to smokefree success.
Finally, with the latest New Zealand Health Survey showing our decline in smoking rates has plateaued we have to ask the question, is this an early warning sign that our regulatory settings are now missing the mark?
